Sleight of Hand

About twelve years ago, I lived in the Republic of Moldova as part of an international exchange program. I had initially applied to go to Romania, but when they announced that they were not sending any Fulbright Scholars to Romania that year, I was asked if I might want to go to Moldova instead. While I knew very little about the country at the time, I learned quite a bit during the ten months that I lived there. 

I was ostensibily there to make a documentary video project, but since the proposal that I had written was specific to Romania, I had to find an entirely different story to tell once I got to Moldova. In support of this, I shot a lot of footage, but the more I learned, the clearer it became that the stories that most intrigued me were precisely those that might work against the whole reason that I was there in the first place. After all, the central mission of the Fulbright program is to promote cross-cultural understanding between nations, and I worried that much of what I learned in my time living abroad might not paint my host country in a favorable light. 

Don't get me wrong. I genuinely loved my time in Moldova and found it to be a very warm and welcoming culture. However, I was not there to make a tourism video. As a writer, filmmaker and person with a keen interest in foreign policy, the stories that most fascinated me included things like their "mail-order bride" industry, as well as the cultural divide between Russian speakers and Romanian speakers. Most of all, though, I was interested in learning more about the breakaway republic of Transnistria, where I was advised not to travel out of fear of getting my passport and video camera confiscated by the local authorities. 

I never did go to Transnistria, but the recent developments in Ukraine have brought this region back to the forefront of my mind. If you look at a map of NATO countries, you may notice that they only extend as far east as Romania. Many of the reasons that Moldova is not a member have a lot to do with Russia. You see, ever since 1991, Russia has maintained a standing army of about 2,000 troops in the Transnistrian region, and they are the only country to officially recognize it as an independent state. Even thought the Moldovan government claims it as their own, the largely Russian-speaking citizens of this easternmost part of the country have their own government, complete with its own flag, capital and currency. This intranational dissonance, along with rampant systemic corruption, much of which is also tied to Russia, is at the heart of why Moldova lacks any clear path to NATO membership.

I mention all of this because there are obvious parallels here to what is happening right now in the Donbas region of Ukraine. If Putin's ultimate aim is to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO, then it makes sense that he is following essentially the same playbook as Russia has been using in Moldova for the past thirty years. In supporting these breakaway, Russian-aligned states, this effectively prevents them from being able to join NATO, thus preserving Putin's geographic buffer between Russia and the West. By moving these vast numbers of troops and performing military exercises just across the border, it allows Russia to flex its muscles on the world stage. At the same time, by occupying instead of attacking, it achieves the same policy objective--assuming that it is in fact to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, as opposed to a full-scale military invasion and annexation. If, however, Putin does try to take over Ukraine, it's not entirely clear what he could hope to achieve, as he would no doubt face extreme resistance on all fronts. After all, even if Russia manages to occupy all of Ukraine, the fight will almost certainly continue for as long as they are there. This is what happens when one occupies by force (see Afghanistan for details).

On the other hand, now that Putin has the world's attention, perhaps he seeks to get certain sanctions eased by backing down instead of launching an all-out attack, like some kind of mass hostage situation. By then leaving large numbers of troops behind in the Donbas region as a "peacekeeping" force, Putin essentially achieves what he set out to do. If most of the Russian forces eventually withdraw, then it is seen by the West as a win, but all it takes is a small fraction of the estimated 190,000 soldiers to stay in these regions to lead to long-term instability for Ukraine. One need not look any further than Moldova for proof of this assertion. 

UPDATE: All bets are now off, and personally, I think that Putin may have overplayed his hand. My heart goes out to the brave people of Ukraine. May you find the strength and international support to repel this unwarranted Russian aggression.